Chapter 1, the sky was overcast with dark clouds

After he sat down, the two leaders quickly exchanged views. Finally, the district leader stood up and said: "Everyone's insights on the current situation are very astute, and I hope you will continue to work hard in the future! I will report the situation of today's meeting and everyone's opinions truthfully to the military headquarters. After returning to the defense area, please prepare according to the orders from the military headquarters. The next course of action will depend on the decisions from the military headquarters. Dismissed!" I will report the situation of today's meeting and everyone's opinions truthfully to the military headquarters. After returning to the defense area, please prepare according to the orders from the military headquarters. The next course of action will depend on the decisions from the military headquarters. Dismissed!

Baili hurriedly asked: "What is the basis for this?"

Arrogant and shortsighted!" Xiang Tian blurted out.

"Hold a meeting!" Xiang Tian pondered for a moment, his expression growing serious, and asked, "Have you all decided to go to war with the Japanese?"

First, the awareness of the officers and soldiers is high: the majority of the 19th Route Army are from Guangdong, which was the first province to follow Dr. Sun Yat-sen's revolution, and the populace was among the earliest to accept democratic ideological education, thus the military here naturally has a high level of awareness. Second, the cultural quality of the officers and soldiers is high: Guangdong has always been prosperous and was one of the first places to come into contact with the West, leading to the establishment of many Western-style schools, resulting in a higher level of education among the populace, and the army from this region naturally possesses a higher cultural quality. Third, they have rich combat experience: the 19th Route Army has participated in various battles such as the Eastern Expedition, pacification campaigns, the Northern Expedition, and anti-communist operations, making them battle-hardened. Fourth, the political stance: I find the political stance of the 19th Route Army to be quite nuanced; although nominally under the National Government, they essentially operate independently, maintaining connections not only with different factions within the government but also with many local power brokers, and even having certain interactions with local strongmen. These numerous advantages endow this army with strong plasticity, and given time, I believe the 19th Route Army can become a unique force within the country

It has already been set for two days later! I suspect the government may want to stay out of it, not giving Japan any grounds to act. In this way, once war breaks out, it will be almost certain that you will be fighting alone! I truly worry for you!

The commander gestured for Tan Qixiu to sit down and took over the conversation, saying: "These are merely the preliminary inferences of the military headquarters, but the true intentions of the Japanese army remain unknown. To ensure safety, the military headquarters has issued the following orders: 1. The entire army is to strengthen its vigilance from today onwards to prevent sudden attacks by the Japanese army. 2. In the face of provocations from the Japanese army, we should adopt a restrained attitude as much as possible to avoid friction, and absolutely must not fire the first shot! 3. All officers and soldiers who are away from their posts should be notified to return to duty as soon as possible, and all leaves are to be canceled. 4. A comprehensive inspection of weapons and equipment is to be conducted, and the storage of ammunition is to be increased. The purpose of gathering everyone here is twofold: first, to convey the orders from the military headquarters, and second, to hear everyone's views on the current situation, to pool our ideas together; it is best that everyone speaks up." After finishing, he pointed to Brigade Commander Weng Zhaoyuan of the 156th Brigade and said: "Zhaoyuan, you speak first."

Upon hearing this, Weng Zhaoyuan said unhappily: "Even if we cannot win, we must fight! Even if all of our 19th Route Army perish on the battlefield, we cannot let the little devils benefit!"

Baili asked: "Is the troop relocation necessary?"

Bai Li quickly said: "I am already 26 years old and know how to take care of myself. You need not worry too much. Besides, I am after all a company commander, so the danger will not be too great!"

Sun Baili strolled out of the barracks door; the cold and damp air, along with the snowflakes that greeted him, quickly dispelled the fatigue brought on by the day's meetings. He glanced at his watch, noting that he still had ample time, so he abandoned the idea of taking a vehicle and slowly walked along the street, his mind drifting back to the scenes from the meeting.

Xiang Tian let out a gentle sigh: "I hope so!" He then poured a glass of wine for Baili and himself, and continued: "I studied at the Japanese Army Officer School for two years, so I have a certain understanding of the Japanese Army. Now I will share some of my views to see if they might be of help to you. First, regarding weaponry, the Japanese Army's light weapons do not have a significant advantage over the main forces of the Central Army. The Type 38 rifle and Type 11 light machine gun are even inferior to the European-style weapons of the Central Army. However, the Japanese Army possesses overwhelming superiority in heavy equipment such as artillery and tanks. Secondly, concerning the military quality of the officers and soldiers, Japan has a comprehensive range of military academies, and the army has well-established military regulations and infantry manuals. The training is extremely rigorous, coupled with long-term militaristic ideological education, which results in a high level of military quality and a strong spirit of active combat among the Japanese troops.

Seeing the puzzled expressions on everyone's faces, Sun Baili further explained: "According to Western military theory, if Japan wishes to completely conquer China, it must undertake comprehensive military preparations, with over 60% of its industrial production capacity dedicated to producing military supplies. However, based on my observations, Japan is still far from reaching this figure."

After Sun Baili finished speaking, the conference room fell into a brief silence. The 19th Route Army is a force that has been tested by the domestic wars, and the officers present can be said to be battle-hardened, experienced in military strategy and combat. However, upon hearing Baili's words, they suddenly realized that war is no longer so straightforward; it is intricately linked to both international and domestic political situations, and they all fell into deep contemplation.

Sun Baili replied: "Although the Northeast Army has completely withdrawn from the three northeastern provinces, the local militias continue to resist. Additionally, due to the vast territory requiring a large number of troops for garrison, the Japanese forces that can be deployed to Shanghai will not be too many. At the same time, in order to avoid a full-scale war with China, the scale will naturally be limited as well"

What are the advantages

The chief of staff spoke with a grave expression: "The commander-in-chief and the army chief are trying to ascertain the attitude of the National Government through various channels. However, the government is currently embroiled in serious internal strife, with Chiang Kai-shek stepping down and Wang Jingwei holding real power. This individual is notoriously pro-Japanese, and the likelihood of him supporting our resistance against Japan is minimal. Therefore, once hostilities commence, our army is highly likely to fight alone. Everyone present must be mentally prepared for this."

Baili quickly said with a serious expression: "What I just said is not a lie; these are merely the most ideal circumstances I hope for. When it comes to *illustrations*, the possibility of realization is almost zero! However, I have also prepared for the worst, so cousin, you need not worry too much about me"

I hope so, but the affairs of the world are unpredictable! I can't be of much help, but I have arranged for you ten boxes of firecrackers and one thousand rounds of ammunition, which are with Boss Qin at Xiangsheng Trading Company. You can pick them up when you have the time. Then, stretching his body vigorously as if to shake off all negative emotions, he said loudly to Baili: "Let's not talk about these things anymore! Before we part ways, let's have a good meal together and not waste the fine food and wine!" With that, he picked up his knife and fork and launched a full-scale attack on the food in front of him.

Baili said with a slightly excited tone: "The public is indignant, and morale is high!"

Xiang Tian raised his hand and tapped Bai Li on the head, laughing and scolding, "What’s this? Have you grown wings and want to show off even to your cousin?"

Weng Zhaoyuan, with his straightforward personality, said without hesitation: "I believe that under the current circumstances, as long as the Japanese army attacks, our army must fight to the death; there is no other option! Zhang Xueliang's Northeast Army did not fire a single shot and lost the Three Eastern Provinces. If our 19th Route Army also hands over Shanghai to the enemy, it will only embolden Japan's arrogance and continue their ambition to invade China. Therefore, we must deliver a heavy blow to the Japanese army and let them know that Chinese soldiers are not cowards!" The officers nodded in agreement.

There is currently nothing to report. The main purpose of this meeting convened by the command is to understand the perspectives of mid-level officers regarding the situation, while also assessing the morale.

Sun Baili replied calmly: "In fact, Japan's choice to provoke incidents in Shanghai at this time is primarily based on political considerations rather than military reasons. It has just used force to seize the Three Eastern Provinces and is attempting to establish the so-called Manchukuo. These actions have, to varying degrees, undermined the interests of Western powers in China, and the National Government has also lodged complaints against Japan with the 'Nine-Power Group.' Therefore, Japan urgently needs to divert international attention. Shanghai is a place where the interests of Western powers in China are highly concentrated. Creating incidents here can successfully shift the focus of the powers while also providing an opportunity for Japan to demonstrate its strength. Thus, the Japanese military has no choice but to act! However, the chances of launching a full-scale invasion of China are very low; at most, it would be a localized conflict!"

Baili immediately exaggeratedly made a helpless expression, spread his hands, and said: "You are truly difficult to please! In the past, I was humble, and you said I lacked confidence. Now I am full of confidence, but you say I am arrogant and conceited!"

Seeing the contemplative expressions on the officers' faces, Sun Baili continued, "However, one of the objectives of the Japanese army's actions this time is to demonstrate their strength to the great powers. If they are defeated by the Chinese army, not only will they lose face, but it will also have immeasurable consequences in terms of diplomacy and politics. Therefore, the Japanese army must achieve final victory before they can cease their efforts"

Weng Zhaoyuan retorted, "According to your view, it is impossible not to fight now, yet fighting would undoubtedly lead to defeat. Are we, the 19th Route Army, not left with no way out?"

As the commander of the 156th Brigade, 6th Company, and the 1st Library Group, Sun Baili attended a military conference held at the headquarters of the 78th Division. Due to the recent provocations by the Japanese in Shanghai, the atmosphere of the meeting was somewhat tense. Deputy Division Commander Tan Qixiu first briefly introduced the situation in Shanghai: "Since our troops took over the defense of Shanghai from the Central Tax Police Corps, the Japanese have repeatedly created incidents, often leading to conflicts between Japanese soldiers, expatriates, and Shanghai citizens. At the same time, the Japanese Marine Corps has continuously provoked our defensive positions, even directly aiming rifles at our sentries, displaying an extremely arrogant demeanor!" As he spoke, he walked to the military map, pointing to several blue arrows representing the Japanese forces: "The Japanese have begun constructing fortifications with sandbags along the Qiujiang Road and Baoshan Road line three days ago. Additionally, the recent arrival of warships from Japan to Shanghai indicates that the Japanese are intensively preparing for war!"

Qu Shou Nian pondered for a moment and asked, "Could you please explain it in detail?"

Baili replied with a smile: "No matter how bold I am, I wouldn't dare to keep you waiting, esteemed elder. Ever since I was young, I have always listened to your every word! There is a reason for my slight tardiness today!"

Tan Qixiu asked: "Why is that?"

Xiang Tian downed the wine in his cup and said, "It seems that the battle of Shanghai is inevitable!" Then, in a sarcastic tone, he asked, "Have you expressed your grand theories yet?"

Xiang Tian curiously asked: "What is the reason? With Cai Tingkai as your backing, does anyone still dare to prevent you from coming out?"

Bai Li happily replied: "Of course I mentioned it! Both mentors attach great importance to it, and after the meeting, they kept me behind to discuss it for a long time; otherwise, I wouldn't have come so late"

Sun Baili quickly stood up and said: "I believe that the battle in Shanghai is already an arrow on the bowstring for Japan, and it must be released! Therefore, our army has no choice but to actively engage in battle! If we are sufficiently prepared, the Japanese army may not gain any advantage!"

The officers were already puzzled when the division commander named an obscure battalion commander, and they were whispering among themselves to inquire about his background. Suddenly, upon hearing him make such a decisive statement, they could not help but focus their attention on this young man, who had an air of scholarly demeanor.

The winter of 1931 arrived particularly early; October had just passed when a strong cold front from the north swept across much of China, and even Shanghai, located in the south of the Yangtze River, was not spared. To everyone's surprise, snowflakes began to fall in the early autumn sky.

Sun Baili replied, "That is not necessarily the case! Behind us is the support of 400 million people, and we are engaged in defensive operations, with both geographical advantages and popular support. Although our army is not the direct line of the central army, it is still part of the Chinese military. The National Government, even if it wishes to see us perish, must still consider the consequences! Furthermore, neither side is fully prepared for a total war, and Shanghai is a focal point of interests for the great powers. Once the situation approaches a point of losing control, it is certain that some countries will intervene to mediate. Therefore, we only need to concentrate all our efforts to engage with the Japanese army, striving to hold them off at the smallest possible cost!"

As soon as I entered the door of mhetushu.com, I saw my cousin, Xiang Tian, sitting at a table directly facing the entrance. His robust body was leaning back in the chair, holding a glass of red wine that was already half-drunk, smiling broadly at me. Just as I settled down, Xiang Tian pretended to check his watch and jokingly said, "Little brother, you are really punctual! I said to arrive by 5:00, and you can't be a minute early? Is it to give your big brother a sense of face by making him wait?"

Baili listened attentively to his cousin and, after a moment of contemplation, asked: "So what did you discover to be the weaknesses of the Japanese army?"

However, the commander of the 155th Brigade, Huang Gu, expressed his concerns: "What should we do if the Japanese army attacks our troops, and the National Government does not allow us to resist? We, the 19th Route Army, are not the Central Army after all! Without the support of the government, how can we, with just over 30,000 men, possibly compete against the Japanese?"

Bai Li pondered for a moment and said: "In fact, the initial decision to join the 19th Route Army was simply because it allowed me to stay in Shanghai, thus providing an opportunity to engage directly with the Japanese army and gain a preliminary understanding of their combat methods. You know, I spent six years studying abroad, all of which were spent in German military academies, so I have a relatively comprehensive understanding of Western armies. However, I know very little about China's greatest enemy—Japan! Given the current developments, it seems almost inevitable that a full-scale war will break out between China and Japan, so I am eager to seize the opportunity to fight against the Japanese army. After joining the 19th Route Army, I discovered that this unit possesses many valuable qualities, and my special relationship with General Cai Tingkai makes me feel that I have even more opportunities to realize my ambitions here.

Xiang Tian straightened his body, fixed his gaze on Bai Li, and asked: "How is it?"

Xiang Tian sighed and said, "In fact, with your talent in the military, whether you stay in the Tax Police Corps or go to the Central Army, it would be more promising than joining the 19th Route Army! I really do not understand why you would make such a choice"

Bai Li self-deprecatingly said: "At least we still have the support of the entire nation! Furthermore, if it really comes to a point of exhausting all resources, we can still retreat! The full-scale war has not yet broken out, so our commander has no need to exhaust all our resources here!"

Sun Baili noticed that everyone was looking at him, and he understood that Colonel Huang's question represented the opinions of the group. He calmed his slightly tense emotions, smiled, and said: "When I returned to my country, I took a detour through Japan for a period of investigation. I found that although Japan has accelerated its military expansion efforts, its industrial production has not yet shifted to a wartime footing. Therefore, I conclude that Japan has not yet completed its preparations for a full-scale war"

Xiang Tian nodded and said earnestly: "It is reassuring to know that you have such thoughts, but the situation in war is perilous and ever-changing. You must exercise caution! If things do not go well over there, as long as I am still in the tax police team, you can return at any time!"

Reflecting on his speech at the meeting, Baili felt a deep sense of satisfaction, as it not only powerfully countered some rumors circulating within the army, alleviating the pressure on the commander, but also demonstrated to those who spoke ill of him that, although he had entered the 19th Route Army through connections, he possessed genuine skills and capabilities. Unconsciously, Baili had already walked more than halfway down the street. He noticed that the French restaurant, where he had arranged to meet his cousin, was not far ahead. After tidying up his military uniform slightly, he strode forward.

Huang Gu asked: "How could Japan, with its economic and military strength far surpassing that of China, possibly fear a full-scale war?"

Xiang Tian explained: "According to reliable intelligence, when the Japanese army launched the 'September 18 Incident', the total number of troops in the entire Northeast was only a little over 10,000. The audacity of attacking the Northeast Army, which had 300,000 troops, without the advantage of time, terrain, or popular support, is enough to illustrate their arrogance! After achieving success, they not only failed to handle the situation discreetly but also went to Shanghai to create further incidents. Although this may divert the attention of countries around the world, it inevitably raises the alert of Western powers and stirs anti-Japanese sentiment among the Chinese populace, which is a sign of shortsightedness." Looking at his cousin's focused expression, Xiang Tian nodded in approval and continued: "These are all my personal views; whether they are correct or not requires you to verify for yourself. I originally thought I could stay in Shanghai and fight alongside you, but who would have thought that now I might not even have the chance to watch the battle!"

The officers were greatly disappointed and began to vehemently criticize the Nanjing government and the pro-Japanese faction. Upon realizing that they were destined to fight a desperate battle, the stubborn spirit inherent in the people of Guangdong immediately surfaced, and they began to brainstorm strategies for engaging the Japanese army. The theme of the meeting unconsciously shifted from analyzing the situation to preparing for war. Before they knew it, more than half a day had passed. The district commander was about to conclude the meeting when he inadvertently noticed Sun Baili, who was quietly sitting in the corner. Remembering that this individual had been personally recommended by the commander and was said to have furthered his studies at the German Army University, the commander felt it inappropriate not to allow him to express his views at such an important military meeting, as it would be difficult to explain to the commander. Without further ado, he directly asked, "Brother Baili, what insights do you have?"

Xiang Tian gazed at Baili, who was speaking eloquently before him, and couldn't help but feel a surge of emotion: his cousin had grown up! He was no longer the obedient child who always listened to him! Although a bit arrogant, there was no doubt that he was maturing day by day. While feeling a slight sense of loss, he felt even more joy. Nevertheless, he decided to sound a warning to his cousin, who was six years younger than him, and spoke in a very stern tone: "These are merely your one-sided thoughts. Although Cai Tingkai is your uncle's student, the 19th Route Army is not his personal army; it contains many factions! Furthermore, do not underestimate those officers who have fought on the domestic battlefield for many years just because you have studied military affairs abroad for a few years. They have been through countless battles; their practical combat experience is more than sufficient to be your teacher, even if their military theories may not be as advanced as yours!"

"That is not the reason. I spent the entire day in a meeting at the headquarters, and I came here immediately after the meeting adjourned," explained Baili.